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关税引发经济衰退忧虑 油价节节下滑

美国宣布加征关税,以及石油输出国组织及其盟友(OPEC+)决定加快增产步伐后,油价进一步下跌,创下2022年以来最严重的跌势。

彭博社指出,美国西得克萨斯中质油(WTI)跌破每桶67美元,布伦特原油则跌至接近70美元。在美国总统特朗普大举加征关税,让全球经济前景增添阴影的数个小时后,OPEC+宣布将今年5月的增产幅度,提高至原定计划的三倍。

与会代表称,上述增产之举,旨在惩罚违规超产、刻意压低油价的成员。这两项消息在油市掀起震荡,然而对于长期抱怨油价过高的特朗普而言,可能反倒是一桩好事。

尽管油价下跌,有助于缓解各国央行面对的通膨压力,但同时也反映出,市场对经济增长前景感到忧虑,近几周已有多家企业下调了盈利预测。

PVM石油分析师瓦尔加(Tamas Varga)说:“华盛顿与维也纳调制了一杯完美的利空鸡尾酒,几乎针对所有主要美国贸易伙伴的报复性关税,理所当然地引发对经济衰退,甚至停滞性通膨的担忧。

“经济与石油需求的增长,都因此受到负面冲击。”

#财经即时 #关税 #OPEC+ #油价 #经济衰退



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关税引发经济衰退忧虑 油价节节下滑

美国宣布加征关税,以及石油输出国组织及其盟友(OPEC+)决定加快增产步伐后,油价进一步下跌,创下2022年以来最严重的跌势。

彭博社指出,美国西得克萨斯中质油(WTI)跌破每桶67美元,布伦特原油则跌至接近70美元。在美国总统特朗普大举加征关税,让全球经济前景增添阴影的数个小时后,OPEC+宣布将今年5月的增产幅度,提高至原定计划的三倍。

与会代表称,上述增产之举,旨在惩罚违规超产、刻意压低油价的成员。这两项消息在油市掀起震荡,然而对于长期抱怨油价过高的特朗普而言,可能反倒是一桩好事。

尽管油价下跌,有助于缓解各国央行面对的通膨压力,但同时也反映出,市场对经济增长前景感到忧虑,近几周已有多家企业下调了盈利预测。

PVM石油分析师瓦尔加(Tamas Varga)说:“华盛顿与维也纳调制了一杯完美的利空鸡尾酒,几乎针对所有主要美国贸易伙伴的报复性关税,理所当然地引发对经济衰退,甚至停滞性通膨的担忧。

“经济与石油需求的增长,都因此受到负面冲击。”

#财经即时 #关税 #OPEC+ #油价 #经济衰退

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Spiking bond yields driving sharp losses in tech stocks

A spike in interest rates since the start of the year has accelerated a rotation out of high-growth technology stocks and into value stocks poised to benefit from a reopening of the economy. The Nasdaq has fallen more than 10% over the past month as the Dow has soared to record highs, with a spike in the 10-year US Treasury yield acting as the main catalyst. It recently surged to a cycle high of more than 1.60% after starting the year below 1%. But according to Jim Paulsen, the Leuthold Group's chief investment strategist, rising interest rates do not represent a long-term threat to the stock market. Paulsen expects the 10-year yield to cross 2% by the end of the year. A spike in interest rates and its impact on the stock market depends on the economic backdrop, according to Paulsen. Rising interest rates amid a strengthening economy "may prove no challenge at all for stocks," Paulsen said.

Start with a fresh view of investing strategy. The combination of risks and fads this quarter looks to be topping. That means the future is ready to move in.Likely, there will not be a wholesale shift. Company actions will aim to benefit from economic growth, inflationary pressures and a return of market-determined interest rates. In turn, all of that should drive the stock market and investment returns higher.

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